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Posts Tagged ‘trading’

On Friday, flash media maker Lexar Media (LEXR) received a higher revised takeover bid from Micron Technology (MU). The revised bid places the all-stock exchange offer at around $10 a share, up marginally from the initial bid.

But major shareholders including billionaire investor Carl Icahn along with hedge funds and portfolio managers have deemed the initial bid to be inappropriate. Elliott Associates believes the initial bid “significantly undervalues Lexar,” and feels Lexar is worth between $1.5 billion and $2.4 billion. The estimate is well above the revised takeover bid of about $827 million.

I must concur and say the revised takeover bid is way too low and needs to be rejected by shareholders. Micron wants to pay around 1.10x sales for Lexar while the market leader SanDisk (SNDK) is trading at 4.35x sales. Lexar also has a $400 million patent infringement lawsuit against Toshiba that it had previously won but is now subject to an appeal by Toshiba.
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Picking good stocks is only the first step to become a consistently profitable trader. Those of you that track the performances of stock picks I post on http://www.cisiova.com/analysis.asp know that it is impossible to determine if a stock is good without a good exiting strategy. And for most traders, exit strategy is the hardest part. Many people say that to trade profitably you need to develop the right mentality. Unfortunately, such winning mentality can only be developed through experience. However, there is a short cut to get through the learning curve without throwing thousands of dollars in the process. This short cut is playing POKER.

Yes you heard me right. Apparently, playing poker has a lot of similarities with investing in stocks. First of all, they both deal with money, uncertainties, and a keen judgment of potential risk and reward. In this article I will explain the similarities and differences between stock trading and poker. But before proceeding, make sure you know the rules of Texas Holdem and fluent with the terminologies.

Think of stock picking as looking for good hands to play. In Texas Holdem, you can look at the two hole cards and decide whether you can play the hand or not. Similarly, you can analyze the stock before entering a position. Fortunately for you traders, no one will raise pre-flop, so you just pay the commission. Remember to exit the position you also need to pay the commission, which implies that the cost of entering a position is two times the commission. Good poker players only play good hands, so you should do thorough researches before entering a position. One good thing about trading is that you do not have to wait for good stocks like poker players wait for good hands, you can find good stocks on stock picking websites or using screeners to find them yourself.
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When I thought about some of the first things I learned before trading the Forex market, fundamental analysis came to mind. Fundamental analysis refers to factors that affect the price of a currency pair. It is important not only to perform technical analysis based on your charts and indicators, but to also be aware of the macroeconomic events that can affect a currency pair. What helped me in my forex education was learning each currency’s characteristics. Whichever pair or pairs you choose to trade, knowing each of their characteristics is extremely valuable because it aids in the accuracy of any trade you perform.

Europe- Euro. This currency is rather new. It began trading in 1999; however the EURO/USD pair is the most traded. Because of this, the EURO/USD is very liquid. The euro is greatly affected by interest rates. If you are trading the EURO/USD pair, you must pay attention to the Euribor (Europe’s three-month interest rate), to watch for any changes in investor reactions when trading the EURO/USD pair since the Usd and Euro rates affect each other. The EURO/USD is my personal favorite pair because of the many opportunities it gives for potential trades.

Japan- Japanese Yen. Japan is the largest economy in East Asia; therefore the yen is used as an alternate for the whole region’s economy. If there is trouble in the surrounding countries, the yen may drop in value. The Bank of Japan is known for intervening in the forex market to defend the yen’s value. Another factor affecting the yen is the overall strength of its banking sector.
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I know a woman in her sixties. She worked for a company for a little more than a decade as an administration and office assistant for a staff of one hundred sales people, who loved her dearly. She always made sure all the faxes got to their desks; the stationery stock was full and each staff member had what he needed.

Beyond her job description, she was like a mother to all of them: making sure the toilets got cleaned, old food was removed from the fridge and decorating the entire floor which the department occupied. She worked hard and never complained. She was always smiling, friendly and polite.

She felt good about being a ‘mother’ to all the people who entered and left that department. She was comfortable with her position. No-one else could do the things she did. And she did them better than anyone else in the building.

One day, she went to work as usual. After doing her morning chores, she was invited to the office, where she was told her services were no longer needed. The company was undergoing certain cost-cutting measures in every department and unfortunately, her role would have to be sacrificed. She was then asked to leave the building as soon as possible. She was assured, however, that before having made the decision, every attempt had been made to find a position for her somewhere within the company.

She has financial obligations to fulfil and she still hasn’t saved enough for her retirement. She still has credit to pay off and she was saving for a trip overseas, something she never got around to doing in her younger years. She wanted to save up to establish a book-selling business. Suddenly, she would have to re-evaluate her plans. Losing a job and nearing retirement age, she will have to relinquish some of the things she had dreamt for herself.

I am sure you have heard hundreds of similar stories like these. Just five months before writing this article, I had already read about companies cutting costs by laying off jobs. Their main reason is to remain competitive, so they would not have to raise the prices they charge to their customers. Companies are outsourcing jobs overseas because the labour costs in other countries are relatively cheap compared to the local currency and sometimes because of significant skills or technological advantages. Other businesses lessen staff when sales drop and they can no longer sustain to pay the same number of people they have on their payroll. No organisation – not even a big, established business – is immune from the need to become leaner in an ever-increasingly competitive market environment.
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